By: Katherine-Rose Lohier
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has publicly announced the possibility of complete re-entry of the United Kingdom into the European Union. So what?
Westminster should be taking the September 14, 2026 Memorandum of Understanding seriously. Yet, in light of a possible Brexit reversal, Westminster has decided to dismiss it as just another publicity stunt from nationalist parties.
This memorandum and the concurrent 2026 Cardiff Agreement boldly reject Westminster’s leadership and call for "constitutional change." It has been signed by outspokenly pro-independence leaders: First Minister of Scotland John Swinney, First Minister of Wales Rhun ap Iorwerth, First Minister of Northern Ireland Michelle O’Neill, and President of the Irish republican party Sinn Féin Mary Lou McDonald. There is a fundamental difference between individual countries publicizing comments about independence and a collaborative rejection of Westminster’s rule. Westminster needs to understand that organization demonstrates intent.
Was it really Brexit that landed us in this situation?
Only two years before the Brexit referendum, Prime Minister David Cameron, an opponent of Scottish independence, “won” a referendum in Scotland where 55% of the population voted “No” to leaving the UK. In the immediate aftermath of the Brexit referendum, then First Minister Nicola Sturgeon began to call for a second vote on independence. 62% of Scotland had voted “Remain,” and yet the 52% of the UK who voted “Leave” would decide Scotland’s fate. Scotland has since been removed from the EU against their will, a circumstance that the Scottish people hadn’t been able to weigh two years prior.
Even if the UK were to attempt a Brexit reversal, it is important to note that Scotland asked for, and received, an independence vote before Brexit. The UK has already validated Scotland’s desire for independence through a legal referendum. Moreover, the existence of the past referendum reiterates that Scotland’s dissatisfaction within the United Kingdom is not new. There was pre-existing tension between the UK and Scotland that has since been exacerbated by the distrust created by the removal of Scotland, against its will, from the EU. A reversal of Brexit cannot reverse the years of robbing Scotland of its autonomy.
Across the sea, the situation in Ireland is even more fragile.
When Ireland gained independence in 1922, it was partitioned by the UK. Catholic communities that remained in Northern Ireland cried out against political, housing, and workforce discrimination from government officials and police forces. Inspired by the civil rights movement, the outcry culminated in a protest on October 5, 1968 in Derry. Scenes of the protest being violently crushed by police forces sparked a 30-year-long conflict known as the Troubles.
The Troubles officially ended with the signing of the landmark Good Friday Agreement. At the time, the UK was still in the EU. The assumption built into the agreement was that there would remain an open border between Northern Ireland and Ireland for the easy flow of trade and facilitation of intra-island cooperation. Naturally, as the reality of Brexit set in, Westminster had to scramble to create a plan that would honor the open border between Northern Ireland and Ireland while maintaining a hard border between Ireland, which is still in the EU, and the rest of the UK.
Re-entry into the EU would help alleviate this particular difficulty, though it would require yet another systematic revision of trade protocols for the region. Just as in Scotland’s case, Brexit continues to reveal the fragility of the UK and the unstable control of Westminster over external administrations.
Joint governance over Northern Ireland, as stipulated in the Good Friday Agreement, is also spiraling in a downward trend. Due to the way that executive authority is framed in Strand One of the agreement, it is ensured that one leader will be a representative of the unionists, and one will be representative of the nationalists. Currently, Northern Ireland’s First Minister is from the political party Sinn Féin, representing Irish nationalism, and the Deputy First Minister is from Democratic Unionist Party. While this is reasonable in theory, in practice it has proved to be a great failure. Since its creation, the Assembly has been suspended numerous times; it was suspended in 2002, from 2017 to 2020, and the most recent collapse ran from 2022 to 2024. The Northern Irish Assembly has since continued to operate in this brittle manner, with the recent situation on Garvaghy Road threatening yet another suspension.
Brexit, which resulted in many failed plans to honor an open border, only highlighted existing administrative failures in Westminster. The longer the UK clings to Northern Ireland, the closer that island will get to rehashing old and violent disputes instead of moving forward together.
For what it's worth, US President Donald Trump recently declared his approval of Irish reunification, stating he would "love to see it happen." While he was not referring to any existing agreement between the US and Ireland, Westminster should be wary that his approval comes at the exact time as the Memorandum of Understanding. Foreign nations have buckled under the influence of President Trump before. It is possible that the same could happen to the UK if his support moves from passive to active.
Despite the refusal of Westminster to humor the idea of independence, the organization of the leaders of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland warns that they may not have a choice.