By: Nilufer Molla
As Election Day approaches, the expected continuation of the U.S. war with Iran has been the most salient factor shaping recent American public opinion for the 2026 midterm results.
And already, the war has noticeably negatively impacted public opinion.
Since the start of the war in February of 2026, tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated into the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing the world's “largest oil supply shock in history.” By April 2026, oil prices spiked to $100 a barrel, causing the subsequent rise in domestic gas prices. From late February to this October, the national average spending on gasoline rose from $2.92 per gallon to $4.27 per gallon. The Center for American Progress also reveals that Americans are paying over a whopping $141 billion in extra costs for gasoline.
However, extra fuel costs are not the only financial strain Americans have endured because of this war.
As of October 28, 2026, American taxpayers have contributed $47.1 billion to fund the war. As taxpayers' costs climb higher, gauges indicate a rise in inflation. General consumer spending has risen by 3.8% as of September 2026, up from 2.4% in February. Although consumer spending had lowered from moments of stabilization between these dates, it once hit a record high of 4.2% (the highest it has been in three years).
Although midterm elections are already underway, no imminent end to the war is clear.
The most optimistic assertion he has made for after the election is that an end is “possible,” although the Pentagon is reported to be simultaneously preparing for an offensive strike on Iran after the midterms. At another rally, Trump expressed, “We may do another little Epic Fury”.
If this is true, Americans will continue to face an inflated cost of living, and Trump is seemingly unconcerned. He stated that he thought the rise in prices would be higher, and that such prices are “a small price to pay for taking a nuclear weapon away from maniacs.”
Trump's inability to sell the war to the American public has undoubtedly exacerbated existing disapproval. Both the war’s domestic effects and its insufficient justification fuel these attitudes, but so do other policies like immigration enforcement. Considering Trump’s 2024 campaign, where he promised his voters, “I am not going to start a war. I’m going to stop wars, " it is contradictory and confusing to many why he made the choice.
2026 Midterm predictions indicate this year's election will likely hurt the Republican majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives. This unpopular war’s costs to the American public have led to record-low poll numbers before an election critical to his agenda.
Data from over 1,000 polls show presidential approval ratings started at an average of 52% since inauguration and have fallen to a low of 37% this October. Other sources also consistently indicate a growing sense of disapproval throughout the presidency.
Republicans have also expressed dissatisfaction with Trump’s economic policies regarding the war with Iran. Noor Dubow, a 44-year-old dispatcher at a trucking firm with a clear view of the rising gasoline prices, expressed his alignment with Trump’s economic views despite being “repelled” by his “dehumanizing rhetoric” towards immigration. He regularly voted Republican; however, ever since the decision to begin a war with Iran, he reported leaning towards the Democratic Party out of frustration, questioning, “why aren’t the Republicans holding Trump accountable?”
Although Trump avoided taking the constitutional steps to declare war on Iran altogether, many think Congress still plays a role. Optimism remains that a Democratic flip of the House and Senate can bring economic stability to Americans and increase pushback against unchecked executive decisions.
As the 2026 Midterm Election Day approaches, it is clear that the dissatisfaction paired with civic participation means American voters have the opportunity to flip the majority party in Congress.
Polls currently show Democrats have the edge. If Republicans lose the majority of the House or Senate on November 3rd, Trump could face increased legislative pushback, restrictions on spending, and strong opposition to involvement in wars.