By: Addie Simkin
On February 24, Russia invaded Ukraine in a shot heard halfway around the world in North Korea. Europe and supranational organizations like the UN (and, more specifically, the UN Security Council) are regularly discussing the consequences of this attack. However, this assault is also salient to authoritarian world leaders, East Asian politics, and the so-called Hermit Kingdom, North Korea. This piece considers the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on North Korean international relations.
Politically, North Korea has supported Russia and used the invasion to make a statement against U.S. imperialism. North Korea was one of five countries to reject the UN resolution to condemn Russia, along with Russia itself, Belarus, Syria, and Eritrea. In the statement, diplomat Kim Song criticized the “hegemonic policy” of the U.S. which threatens the “territorial integrity of sovereign nations”. Not only does this statement reinforce North Korea’s historic policy towards the U.S, but it also contains concerning rhetoric about territory and sovereignty. The Korean Peninsula is in armistice, not peace; although the U.S. treats North and South Korea as separate states, neither country sees themselves that way—this is the discursive niche of both the pursuit of reunification and the Demilitarized Zone, or DMZ.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine presents a model of and establishes a precedent for violent border revisionism. Looking to the future, this precedent may lead to similar, inter-Korean violence. North Korea has been diligently amassing nuclear strength since 2006; that, along with its unprecedentedly frequent missile launches this year—nine as of March 9—indicate that it is experimenting with both its own armaments and the norms and responsiveness of the international community.
Economically, North Korea’s hard currency intake has been damaged by the invasion. Here’s why: North Korean workers in Russia have quotas for how much remittance they must send to Pyongyang, converted from rubles to U.S. dollars. As the ruble has tanked in value, workers cannot meet their quotas. Consequently, North Korea and China must develop closer trade relations for Pyongyang to supplement the remittances it can no longer receive from Russia. Fortunately for North Korea, Xi Jinping has reportedly expressed that he is ready to work on China-DPRK relations “under a new situation,” although he has failed to define the new situation. Meanwhile, ex-CIA analyst William Brown warns that the growing force of sanctioned countries—North Korea, Iran, and now Russia—may begin to trade amongst themselves, forming closer financial ties.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has served to reassert North Korea’s animosity toward the U.S. and the West, redouble its alliance with China, and redefine its relationship with Russia, given that North Korea supports Russia even when it can no longer rely upon remittances from Russia. More than that, Putin has established a precedent of violent invasion which Kim can use to help justify a breach to the inter-Korean armistice.
