By: Anna Murray
On January 13th, 2024, the Taiwanese public elected Lai Ching-te to serve as their next president, marking the first time in history that the incumbent party in Taiwan has claimed victory with two subsequent different candidates. The victor’s party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), gained international recognition for being the least favorite option for the People’s Republic of China. Lai Ching-te has long expressed intent to strengthen economic relations with the US, continuing efforts made by previous president Tsai Ing-wen to wean Taiwan off of economic dependence on China and establish significant trade relations with regional partners in Southeast Asia and across the Pacific in Europe and the US. Americans concerned with cross-strait affairs felt an overall sense of relief that the Taiwanese public had favored the DPP over the Kuomintang, which on the whole favored better economic relations with the Chinese mainland.
However, most international observers were surprised by the relative lack of focus on China within this Taiwanese election cycle. Polls and surveys showed that the vast majority of younger and middle-aged Taiwanese voters focused on domestic issues in this election: inflation and job insecurity, housing shortages and wages. At the end of the day, the DPP offered the public a domestic policy package that exceeded the competitors’. To an America that only ever sees Taiwan in the context of the cross-strait conflict, this reality is almost unbelievable. To the average Taiwanese voter, the visible shift to domestic issues is a long time coming.
The first undeniable fact is that the Taiwanese position on China, at least since the advent of the 21st century, has rarely changed. Most Taiwanese individuals highly value the status quo; they do not wish to replicate the “one country, two systems” situation that plagues Hong Kong, but they also do not want the violence and uncertainty that would come with declaring independence. Previous President Tsai Ing-wen faced scalding criticism over her prioritization of independence from China, so much so that Lai Ching-te doubled down on reducing cross-strait tensions as much as possible during his 2024 electoral campaign. Seen time and time again, any politician that attempts to move beyond this status quo is almost immediately discredited in the eyes of the average Taiwanese voter; sharp changes in strategy must invariably be avoided at all costs. As such, in the grand scheme of things, the actual China strategy of the DPP candidate does not vary all that much from the KMT candidate.
Perhaps more importantly, the Taiwanese people are tired of talking about China. For a country that has been talking about and contending with the threat of the PRC for the better half of a century, the fear and uncertainty are commonplace. A professor of mine in Taiwan cautioned us almost immediately against asking locals about the cross-strait issue; though Americans start a discussion on Taiwan with the PRC, it is taboo to discuss on the island itself. The US has only recently reopened the conversation on Taiwan because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its implications, but cross-strait relations remained a preoccupation over decades in Taiwan. The China threat is thus a sunk cost in Taiwanese elections; if you’re going to be a politician in Taiwan in this day and age, you must have something else to bring to the table.
What is left is an intense pride for the type of miracle democracy that Taiwan is; founded out of the ashes of a dictatorship under Chiang Kai-shek and weathered through menacing PLA navy ships at its borders, Taiwanese public participation is as unshakable as ever. It was not until recently that the vast majority of Taiwanese individuals began to identify primarily as Taiwanese; regardless, this individualism has become a crucial part of civic participation and perception of government’s responsibility. Put simply, Taiwanese voters see that there is a lot to Taiwan’s name that does not include the cross-strait crisis, and they expect their government to respond.
While the DPP may favor economic relations with the United States more than China, it is likely the case that China will not base its decision to act on Taiwan on the outcomes of their elections. No Taiwanese party would wholeheartedly hand the island over to the mainland, and Taiwanese industry is already too dependent on China to make a difference one way or the other. Most past attempts to diversify trading partners have faced extreme difficulty due to Chinese sanctions and diplomatic actions; this is a fact that would likely not alter by administration either. In the end, the Taiwanese story will depend on the Chinese willingness to move from threats to action, and this period of uncertainty could span from tomorrow to never. In the meantime, Taiwan can fight by maintaining a well-coordinated democracy, a strong domestic economy and production capacity, and a steady stream of visiting tourists, students, and dignitaries to drum up support. As a result, domestic policy in the coming years will be more crucial than ever, a conviction this election proves beyond a reasonable doubt.
