By: Anna Douglas Piper
Russia and China do not need to defeat the transatlantic alliance. They only need to wait for it to defeat itself.
As NATO allies debate defense spending, China’s rising influence in Indo-Pacific relations, and how to proceed in the Russia-Ukraine War, a crisis is taking place closer to home. On both sides of the Atlantic, the democratic foundations that the alliance was built upon are under strain, which presents urgent security concerns. Democratic erosion within the transatlantic community is a greater long-term threat to the alliance than external adversaries, and the U.S. and EU must prioritize shared democratic resilience as a strategic imperative.
The Atlantic Council’s Sona Muzikarova argues that this populist advance, while once confined to certain regions, is growing into a wider cross-continental movement. Democratic reversals are not new, as waves occurred between the world wars and during the Cold War. However, we are now seeing shifts in countries that were previously considered stable, including the US, India and Greece. These shifts have been driven not by underground, secretive military-style coups, but by democratically elected leaders that appear to be using a similar set of strategies to expand power. Emerging trends in previously reliable Poland, Romania, and Czechia reflect a growing concern of a cross-continental shift.
The security threat is not simply that citizens around the world are losing faith in democracy. The threat is that political elites are responding to this loss of faith by moving away from the institutional commitments that hold alliances together. Hungary is a clear example in its developments of the past 15 years. Viktor Orbán, after winning election in 2010, subsequently diminished the power of the Hungarian National Assembly, rewrote the constitution, and moved away from democratic rule. Today, Hungary is seen as an uncooperative antagonist in the EU, and tens of thousands of citizens have gathered in the past year to protest Orbán’s rule. Researchers show that this phenomenon is not simply between pro- and anti-democratic values, but between anti-establishment and technocratic approaches to governance.
On Washington’s end of the alliance, citizens are experiencing a similar erosion of trust in institutions and democratic norms. According to Freedom House’s Freedom in the World Index, the United States has fallen by 11 points from 2011 to 2023 in democratic health, placing the U.S. behind many long-standing democratic nations on the 100-point scale. Freedom House studies attribute the phenomenon in the US to structural forces, including deepening political polarization, persistent inequality, and a rapidly changing media environment. However, the key is in how leaders respond. If institutional resilience depends on how political elites proceed, then the future of the US democratic health relies on elite commitment to the institutions that sustain it. Elite behavior is the decisive variable in whether democratic institutions hold; when considering this trend alongside parallel institutional pressures in Europe, these developments have the potential to threaten the alliance as a whole.
Reports show that the world is seeing “a truly global wave of autocratization,” and for the first time in over 50 years, countries are moving more towards autocracy than democracy. These developments are reflected in weakening transatlantic relations, which are occurring simultaneously in trade, security, international institutions, and democratic values. This phenomenon is an unprecedented convergence of pressures, and one that threatens the entire European-American order.
It is necessary to understand how these developments threaten the security of both regions. If an alliance built to defend democracy is only as strong as the democracies within it, what happens when those democracies begin to fracture from within? When the anchors of the transatlantic alliance experience declining trust in democracy, the entire system is called into question – this effectively weakens the credibility of the democratic model that the alliance itself is built to defend. If external adversaries like Russia and China seek to exploit democratic weakness for their own gain, current trends mean there will soon be little unified alliance left to resist them.
There are many evolving attitudes on how to combat this problem. Some argue directly against "appeasing" the US, claiming that strengthening Europe as an independent region is necessary to ensure resilience in the face of changing relations with Washington. Yet abandoning the alliance system would leave both regions more vulnerable, not less. The key is to make elite defection from democratic norms more costly, to reduce the appeal of prioritizing short-term political incentives over long-term institutional commitments. Mechanisms in the EU exist for member states who violate democratic norms, but enforcement has been weak. Institutional structures must be strengthened in order to constrain self-serving elite behavior, regardless of who holds power. Judicial independence, press freedom, and legislative oversight must all be bolstered, both domestically and in international institutions. Internationally, this also means increasing transatlantic engagement between elites to reduce isolationism and strengthen shared norms. Bringing together policymakers, economic leaders and engaged citizens can strengthen the transatlantic relationship, making individual elite defection less likely and much harder. These strategies are not just national political concerns, but alliance assets.
University of Chicago professor Susan Stokes argues that “effective resistance to democratic erosion requires strong institutions, social trust, and political elites committed to upholding democratic norms.” If elite commitment is the current variable, then the solution is building domestic institutions and transatlantic structures that make democratic commitment the rational choice for elites. If this doesn’t happen, the entire alliance system is in danger.
And, as political scientist John Peterson has demonstrated, “the futures of the liberal order, transatlantic alliance and western democratic politics are inextricably bound together.” The transatlantic alliance was built to defend democracy from external threats. Today, the greater threat is coming from within, and if not corrected, could bring down the system before Russia and China even need to try.
