By: Luke Crafton
In 2015, Iran, the US, and several other world powers entered an agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This agreement attempted to restrict the revival of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, which ultimately proved successful, with Iran agreeing to in-depth investigations of their nuclear facilities and a subsequent dismantling of their nuclear program in exchange for billions of dollars in sanctions relief.
This agreement remained in effect until 2018, when President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the deal, claiming it was one-sided. Iran initially claimed that they would continue to honor the agreement, but as the Trump administration’s sanctions increased, Tehran began to violate the deal. This started with stockpiling stores of low-enriched uranium at levels above the established limits and escalated to a complete abandonment of uranium enrichment restrictions.
Iran worked to develop the use of nuclear power with the assistance of the United States Atoms for Peace Program from the 1950s continuing into 1970s, even becoming one of the original 62 signatories of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NTP), intending to promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy and prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. However, following the Iranian revolution of 1979, nuclear projects were mostly halted, and US support ceased.
In the late 1980s and early 90s, following a costly war with Iraq, Iran resumed its nuclear program with the help of China, Pakistan, and Russia. However, concerns quickly arose regarding undeclared nuclear facilities in Iran, reinforcing US skepticism that Iran was using its civilian nuclear program to hide its nuclear weapons development.
Tensions between the US and Iran were high during the early 2000s and escalated further following the US withdrawal from the JCPOA. Longtime US ally Israel published a report in 2018 detailing previous Iranian nuclear activities, which US President Donald Trump cited as justification in the US’s withdrawal from the JCPOA, and no meaningful reconciliation were made during the remainder of Trump's term.
When Joe Biden was elected president, he began making attempts to salvage the JCPOA. In 2022, Tehran and Washington made significant progress, but Iranian demands for changes to the agreement, coupled with US concerns regarding the suppression of domestic protests in Iran following the death of Mahsa Amini at the hands of Iran’s morality police ultimately led to a collapse in dialogue.
Following the outbreak of war in Ukraine, Iran began supplying Russia with weaponry and has continued to do so into the present day. Exacerbated by growing hostilities between Iran and Israel following the October 7th attack by Hamas on Israel and subsequent Israeli bombardment of the Gaza strip, little to any hope remains of renewal of the JCPOA.
The death of the JCPOA has become increasingly relevant as Iranian nuclear advancements continue to accelerate. In April of 2024, it was believed that Iran’s “breakout time”—the time required to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb was close to zero. Slowing Iran’s equipment to produce nuclear weaponry was one of the JCPOA’s primary goals, explaining the strict caps on the amount of uranium Iran could stockpile that were part of the agreement.
In December of 2024, reports announced that Iran’s enrichment of uranium has reached levels that are near bomb grade, a likely sign that Iran is approaching capability of constructing nuclear weaponry. While the previous reports from April had indicated 60% purity, reports released in December point towards 90% purity, an amount that most believe can have no civilian justification. While Iran insists its nuclear development has been primarily in the pursuit of energy production, these recent developments question the validity of these claimed motives.
It is unclear what Iran’s purpose in developing nuclear weapons would be. While it is plausible that Iran is shoring up its defenses toward US-Israeli joint opposition following the onset of violence in the Israeli-Palestinian region, it is also possible that Iran intends to create a bargaining chip in the face of Donald Trump’s return to office in the US. As Trump was the one to initially withdraw from the JCPOA, his return to office potentially poses an opportunity for renegotiation, although Trump has pledged that if he were ever to enter an agreement with Iran, it would be far more strict than the one initiated by the Obama administration.
At this time the future of Iranian Nuclear Weaponry is unclear, and heightened tensions in the Middle East between US-backed Israel and Iran-backed Lebanon continue to complicate the path forward. As the US prepares for Donald Trump’s re-entry into the white house and Iran continues to develop its nuclear program, the U.S. and its Western allies must weigh the choice between making concessions to Iran to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and confronting the potential consequences of refusing to do so.
