By: Charlotte Sparling
The war in Ukraine has entered its fourth year. Despite predictions that Ukraine would quickly succumb to the Russians, they are still fighting.
In response to aerial attacks, Ukraine’s drone strikes targeting airfields, oil refineries, and other critical institutions seek to cripple Russia. Furthermore, since the start of 2025, Ukrainian forces have “stabilized much of the 800-mile front line inside Ukraine, stalling Russian advances and counter attacking” in the surrounding area by the cities of Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
Through these efforts, Ukrainian forces continue to fight to hold the line.
Russia has responded to Ukrainian defense by employing extensive resources, with North Korean troops only adding to that. Combined Russian and North Korean troops seized villages and cut supply lines to main Ukrainian forces in Sudzha.
The United States and Europe have continued to provide Ukraine with key support. As questions arise about future American support, the status of Ukraine is becoming increasingly contingent on European aid. The United States currently provides roughly half of the aid to Ukraine. If that is to substantially decrease, Europe would need to quickly step up.
Together, Europe’s resources “constitute a massive air force, giant navy and formidable army.” Yet, the quantity of resources has decreased compared to during the Cold War. Consequently, these countries have begun to revamp their stockpiles. The collective European resource pool surpasses Russian resources, but this rebuilding focus is still crucial.
Global leaders must learn from the Russo-Ukrainian war and apply these lessons in preparing Taiwan for the possibility of a Chinese invasion.
In East Asia, China continues to pressure Taiwan, as seen by their aggressive posturing. For decades, Taiwan has faced this threat, with China almost every day probing Taiwanese defenses with warships and fighter jets with the aim to “to destroy the sovereignty of a free and democratic Taiwan and subordinate it to communist China.”
Former Director of the CIA, William Burns, noted instructions from Chinese president, Xi Jinping, to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan by 2027.
The implications of an invasion “are enormous, potentially including a global economic crisis far worse than the shock caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.”
Preventative measures are vital to prevent such a calamity for the surrounding region. Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Australia would become especially vulnerable if the US failed to act.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Taiwanese leaders stood by the victim, Ukraine.“ ‘Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow’ is now a commonly used phrase in Taiwan.”
Therefore, the US needs to secure Ukrainian sovereignty if it hopes to do the same with Taiwan. Just like dominos, if one is to stand, so too must the other.
The West failed to deter Putin’s invasion, and Ukraine’s future does not contain a guarantee of a reversal to pre-invasion conditions. Russia probed responses to its actions in 2014 amidst its invasions of Crimea, Donbas, Syria, Georgia, and Chechnya. Later, in 2022, Russia carried out the invasion of Ukraine itself.
“If you want peace, be prepared for war.”
China is watching America’s reactions to Ukraine to anticipate what American involvement would look like if China invaded Taiwan. While there are heavy economic costs weighing on Europe following their break with Russia, the costs of a Taiwanese invasion would be far greater.
If the US abandons Ukraine, roughly half of its support would disappear. Simultaneously, a Russian victory would embolden China to move against Taiwan.
These two conflicts are intertwined. Accordingly, Taiwanese officials have learned from Ukraine and have made changes such as restructuring their military by lengthening service terms and training. They have also expanded their drone program after observing the key role drones have played in Ukraine.
The war in Ukraine has exposed modern warfare challenges, US and European military readiness to respond, and has brought about crucial lessons for the future.
While deterrence with Russia failed, there is an increased need for it to work with China.
