Nuclear Deterrence in a New Age: A Story of South Korea

By: David Ball

November 19th, 2024


U.S. foreign policy stands at a precipice in shaping its nuclear doctrine for the 21st century. Instability has driven some countries to consider the atomic bomb, while others race to expand their nuclear arsenals. By the end of the decade, China is estimated to have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads. Meanwhile, other states are scrambling to safeguard themselves against nuclear threats and global instability, as once-strong alliances and long standing commitments are showing signs of faltering.


In 2026, the last nuclear doctrine limiting atomic weapon production between the US and Russia will expire, and it is unlikely to be reinstated. Following the fear of a Ukrainian counterattack in October 2022, the White House was briefed that there were conversations about Russia deploying nuclear weapons in Ukraine. These instances signify a change in nuclear deterrence. 


It is increasingly clear that the U.S. is confronting a multipolar world in terms of nuclear strategy. As NATO faces unprecedented tests and global instability worsens, a new arms race is emerging. To address its changing nuclear position, the U.S. must focus on renewed assurances of diplomacy with its allies. 


South Korea, one of the United States' key allies, stands at the forefront of this nuclear change. In recent months, its primary geopolitical adversary, North Korea, has recently begun rapidly expanding its nuclear capabilities and has been escalating the rhetoric around using nuclear options. The nuclear question has been a topic of intense debate in South Korea since the 1970s, when the US first announced that they would be moving troops away from the peninsula, but this moment comes at a more tumultuous time. 


Not only does North Korea have operational nuclear weapons, but heightened tensions between North and South Korea, uncertainty surrounding the strength of the U.S.-ROK alliance, and North Korea’s closer ties with Russia have created a volatile geopolitical landscape. Notably, 70% of South Koreans believe that its government should develop its own nuclear weapon capability. It is clear that these developments illuminate the need for increased diplomacy to protect our allies and uphold global nuclear nonproliferation efforts. 


This increasing weariness of the ROK’s favorability to develop a nuclear weapon has not gone unnoticed. In July of this year, the Biden administration signed a bilateral agreement with the ROK on a joint nuclear deterrence guideline. While the specifics of this agreement remain classified, it was indicated that it would involve the commitment of U.S. nuclear weapons on assignment in South Korea, which allows for the U.S. to respond to a threat quickly, but without having to change its nuclear stance. While this represents a step toward an increased engagement in diplomacy, gaps remain. Defense officials, academics and other influential policymakers within South Korea are both doubtful that the guideline will survive into the coming years, and are stressing the importance of building a more concrete relationship from this guideline.


By implementing and improving on the guidelines signed in its nuclear doctrine, South Korea can be a critical example of how to strengthen the U.S. nuclear umbrella without resorting to nuclear weapons testing. A detailed implementation roadmap that includes regular military exercises and bolstered diplomatic and military ties between South Korea and the United States could help promote deterrence and peace through strength, and reassure U.S. allies internationally of its nuclear umbrella.


Military nuclear exercises have already been held in South Korea, meaning that regular exercises can be possible, as the infrastructure and diplomatic cooperation already exist. Not only would this deter the DPRK, it would also help illustrate the commitment the U.S. has to its other allies that are threatened by the nuclear question, boosting nuclear proliferation and stability for all.


WITH RECENT DEVELOPMENTS TO THE NUCLEAR PLAYING FIELD, THE U.S.’S $1.7 TRILLION NUCLEAR REBUILD SHOULD CONCERN US ALL

By: Jacob Rabin

November 26, 2024


In February 2023, Russia announced that it would suspend its participation in the New START treaty, the last remaining check on American and Russian nuclear stockpiles. At this point, there have been no negotiations with Russia on a new nuclear arms treaty.


China and the United States lack such a treaty as well, and China halted recent informal negotiations due to the United States continuing to sell arms to Taiwan.


These three countries represent over 92% of the world’s nuclear weapons. Although China’s stockpile lags far behind the United States and Russia, the Defense Intelligence Agency recently published a report stating that China has surpassed earlier growth projections, and by 2030 it is estimated China will have over 1,000 nuclear warheads.


After a brief respite following the Cold War, the threat of nuclear war has skyrocketed. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Doomsday Clock still remains at 90 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been.


The United States government is being forced to respond to these recent developments. The United States is now in the process of a $1.7 trillion nuclear overhaul that is expected to be completed in three decades. The developments include building new nuclear facilities, modernizing aged warheads, developing  bombers, and submarines. Jill Hruby, the Director of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), the agency that oversees the country’s nuclear weapons, recently called the plan a “renaissance.”


Not only does the plan have massive implications for the future of nuclear war, but even on the home front, these developments will have significant impacts on the communities in which they occur. Although the United States no longer routinely tests nuclear warheads, the effects of even building these weapons have extensive effects. 


In 1989, the last time that the US produced plutonium “pits,” the facility in Colorado where production occurred was actually shut down by the Environmental Protection Agency for environmental violations. The effects persist to this day, with plutonium found in the air near the plant just this past summer.


Other communities will  either be temporarily or permanently changed as thousands of employees descend on rural towns.


This is worrying. As tensions continue to escalate between Russia and Ukraine,, a war in the Middle East becoming increasingly likely, and nonstop posturing in the South China Sea over Taiwan, it’s not like there aren’t ongoing conflicts involving nuclear powers. One mistake or overreaction could genuinely change the future trajectory of the planet.


The simple truth is that we need to be alarmed. This is a multifaceted issue whose neglect will have impacts on people both now and later. We need to bring more attention to his issue. We need to work together  to build a nuclear-free future where countries, including the United States, aren’t devoting trillions of dollars to technology that could legitimately destroy the world. 


Continued French Ignorance of Indigenous Populations

In May 2024, riots roared across the French Overseas Territory of New Caledonia due to the French government’s implementation of a new voting amendment. The legislation, passed by politicians across the ocean in Paris, allowed for residents who have been on the island for at least 10 years to vote in elections and participate civically


However, the Indigenous Kanaks, who make up 41% of the country’s population, have lived through many migration efforts by the French government since the 1960s. These attempts have encouraged French residents to migrate to the territory, actively displacing and lessening the influence that the Kanak have over their native land. 


For decades, tensions have continued rising between the island's pro-independence and loyalist parties. The Kanak have continuously suffered from the neglect of the French government and face numerous socioeconomic challenges, such as unemployment, reliance on subsistence farming, and land dispossession. 


This amendment is seen as just an additional move to disregard and overlook the struggles and needs of the island’s native population. 


Between the 1960s and 1980s, the movement for independence within New Caledonia swept across the country’s political scene, and in 1988, a referendum for independence was accepted: the Nouméa Accord. 


This frustration has now taken a new front. 


Native Kanak peoples seeking the autonomy that was gradually promised in the 1989 Nouméa accord feel that any progress has effectively been walked back through this motion, a step that many see as further reducing the influence they have in their homeland by those who are supposed to represent their needs in their politics.  


Even UN experts have been alarmed by the situation, stating: “The French government has failed to respect the basic rights to participation, consultation and free, prior, informed consent of the Kanak Indigenous Peoples and its institutions, including the Customary Senate.”


Beginning in February 2024, Kanak people have taken to the streets in response to protest this measure. Still, due to a lack of dialogue, violence has started to emerge out of these demonstrations. In response, the military has utilized what many have referred to as excessive force, leading to today with the deaths of 14 Kanaks, over 2000 arrests, and nearly 1 billion euros of damage. A large factory was burnt down in Nouméa, alongside the destruction of other property like businesses and cars. 


On the 16th of May, the French government even banned TikTok on the island, aiming further to reduce the spreading of communication and anti-government sentiment. The app’s restrictions were lifted on the 29th as violence began to lighten up due to a French military operation that targeted those organizing. 


Yet, attacks persist across the country as tensions run high between the natives of the New Caledonian islands and the police and military forces, who just months ago employed any means necessary to suppress their voices and resentment over the poor treatment of their communities within the island’s political sphere. A strong police presence remains in many neighborhoods and urban areas across the country, signaling to the Kanak that those who claim to be interested in their liberation still don’t trust or understand them. 


New Caledonia’s status as an overseas territory, especially in the 21st century, is incredibly unique and repeatedly displays the inadequacy of colonial policies that persist in the modern era. 


Roughly 71 overseas territories exist globally, and while not all have created difficult situations for Indigenous populations’ homelands, New Caledonia exemplifies how governments that are so detached can be wholly inadequate for meeting the needs of the people that they have jurisdiction over. 


As this situation unfolds, the international community will continue to watch how poorly this form of governance can manifest itself upon those it is designed to protect.